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Umfrage im Gebiet der Palästina-Autonomie (plus
Ürschalim):
Nur noch 40% für Fatah
Poll No. 149 / 23
January, 2006 - The
Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) focused on the knowledge of
the Palestinians’ tendencies and inclinations towards their favorite
national list for the PLC - election.
In the latest poll conducted on the eve of
the Palestinian Legislative Council elections, prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali:
(39.6%) Would vote for Fateh list in the proportional representation system.
(28.8%) Would vote for the list of "Change and Reform" (Hamas).
(7.7%) Would vote for the Independence List.
(7.2%) Would vote for the List of Alternative (coalition of
DFLP, People's Party and "FIDA")
(39.6%) ??????? ?????? ??? ?? ????
??????? ??????
(28.8%) ??????? ?????? ??????? ? ??????? -????-
(7.7%) ??????? ??????? ????????
(7.2%) ??????? ?????? ?????? -????? ???????????? ? ???
?????? ? ???-
In the latest poll prepared by Dr. Nabil Kukali and
conducted by the Palestinian Center for Public Opinion (PCPO) in the period
from (18 – 21) January 2006, i.e. few days before the election day, a random
sample of (2389) Palestinian adults over 18 years was included, representing
the various demographic models of the Palestinian society in the West Bank,
including East Jerusalem, and Gaza Strip.
 “All
interviews”, said Dr. Nabil Kukali, Director of
PCPO, “took place on the basis of random choices
of respondents’ homes, i.e. face to face. The choices were takes from a
total of (208) election sites, from which (155) sites are located in the
West Bank and (53) sites in Gaza Strip according to the distribution of the
Central Election Committee. These election sites are randomly chosen by
using the method of the simple random sample. These sites in turn were the
beginning of the random sample choice made from that regions in accordance
with PCPO’s long experienced methodology. The sampling error through-out the
whole survey was found at (±2.0%) at the (95%) confidence interval. The
percentage of female respondents was (49.1%) whilst that of the male ones
was (50.9%). He said the composition of the sample according to the
residential area was as follows: (60.3%) West Bank, including East
Jerusalem, and (39.7%) Gaza Strip.
Dr. Kukali pointed out that the “response to the poll question about the
choice of one national list for the PLC election was conducted in a secret
way. The respondents were asked to put a mark on the right side of the
chosen list and to drop the “voting-sheet” into a closed box, specially
designed for that purpose. Every respondent was requested to vote honestly
in the same intent as he/she would do on Wednesday, January 25th, 2006. i.e.
on the Election Day. The poll is said to be considered as pre-voting.”
Mr. Elias Kukali, a staff member of the Research & Studies Section at the
PCPO, said that Fateh proportional list has obtained (37.3%) in the West
Bank and (43.4%) in Gaza Strip, while Hams list scored (29.5%) in the West
Bank and (27.8%) in Gaza Strip, the list of Independent Palestinian attained
(8.5%) in the West Bank and (6.2%) in Gaza Strip, and The Alternative List
(DFLP, People's Party, "FIDA") (Al Badeel) obtained the support of (5.6%) in
the West Bank and (10.1%) in Gaza Strip.
Elias Kukali said, “The following figures would be the outcome for each of
them”:
| List |
Gender |
Total |
|
Male |
Female |
|
1.
The Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party, "FIDA") (Al
Badeel) |
7.5% |
7.0% |
7.2% |
|
2.
National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
7.2% |
8.1% |
7.7% |
|
3.
List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
4.5% |
5.2% |
4.9% |
|
4.
List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas (Palestinian Liberation Front) |
0.6% |
1.0% |
0.8% |
|
5.
List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front) |
1.2% |
0.4% |
0.8% |
|
6. List of Change and Reform
(Hamas) |
27.5% |
30.2% |
28.8% |
|
7.
List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Independent) |
0.8% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
8.
List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad and Hanan
Ashrawi. |
5.3% |
4.1% |
4.7% |
|
9.
List of Freedom and Independence (ArabPalestinian Front) |
0.4% |
0.9% |
0.7% |
|
10.
List of Palestinian Justice (Independent) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
11. List of the Palestinian
National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
40.7% |
38.3% |
39.6% |
|
12. A
blank sheet |
3.4% |
3.2% |
3.3% |
The results of the poll where as follows:
1) Balloting at the next PLC-elections will be in two systems. Half of the
seats for the constituencies (election of individuals), the other half for
the proportional representation, which means voting for one list,
For which list you intend to vote in the proportional representation system?
List |
District |
Total |
|
West
Bank |
Gaza
Strip |
|
1.
The Alternative List (DFLP, People's Party,"FIDA") ( Al
Badeel) |
5.6% |
10.1% |
7.2% |
|
2.
National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
8.5% |
6.2% |
7.7% |
|
3.
List of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
6.0% |
2.9% |
4.9% |
|
4.
List of Martyr Abu El-Abbas (Palestinian Liberation Front) |
1.0% |
0.5% |
0.8% |
|
5.
List of Freedom and Social Justice (Popular Struggle Front) |
0.9% |
0.7% |
0.8% |
|
6.
List of Change and Reform (Hamas) |
29.5% |
27.8% |
28.8% |
|
7.
List of National Coalition for Justice and Democracy (Independent) |
0.7% |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
8.
List of the Third Way (Independent), headed by Salam Fayyad and Hanan
Ashrawi. |
3.8% |
6.2% |
4.7% |
|
9.
List of Freedom and Independence (ArabPalestinian Front) |
0.7% |
0.7% |
0.7% |
|
10.
List of Palestinian Justice (Independent) |
1.1% |
0.2% |
0.8% |
|
11.
List of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
37.3% |
43.4% |
39.6% |
|
12. A
blank sheet |
5.0% |
0.5% |
3.3% |
2) Distribution of the sample according to
the rate of support attained by each of the national lists in all the
governorates.
|
Governorates |
List
of the Palestinian National Liberation Movement (FATEH) |
List
of Change and Reform (Hamas) |
National Initiative List (Independent Palestine) |
The
Alternative List (DFLP, People's
Party, "FIDA") ( Al Badeel) |
List
of Martyr Abu Ali Mustafa (PFLP) |
|
1. Jenin |
7.1% |
8.7% |
4.9% |
5.2% |
10.3% |
|
2.
Nablus |
9.1% |
9.9% |
16.4% |
9.8% |
12.1% |
|
3.
Ramallah |
7.6% |
8.6% |
10.9% |
4.6% |
14.7% |
|
4.
Bethlehem |
5.3% |
4.9% |
3.8% |
4.6% |
5.2% |
|
5.
Jerusalem |
3.4% |
3.6% |
4.4% |
2.3% |
4.3% |
|
6.
Hebron |
14.0% |
14.4% |
15.8% |
11.6% |
12.1% |
|
7.
Jericho |
1.3% |
1.0% |
1.1% |
0.6% |
1.7% |
|
8.
Tulkarem |
5.5% |
6.2% |
5.5% |
4.6% |
8.6% |
|
9. Tubas |
1.9% |
2.3% |
1.6% |
1.2% |
1.7% |
|
10.
Qalqilia |
2.3% |
2.5% |
2.2% |
1.7% |
3.4% |
|
11.
Salfit |
2.0% |
2.3% |
3.3% |
2.3% |
3.4% |
|
12. Gaza
City |
11.2% |
16.1% |
7.7% |
16.2% |
8.6% |
|
13.
North Gaza |
6.2% |
7.0% |
12.6% |
11.6% |
2.6% |
|
14. Deir
El Balah |
7.4% |
3.0% |
1.6% |
8.1% |
5.2% |
|
15. Khan
Yonis |
10.6% |
5.1% |
2.7% |
6.4% |
2.6% |
|
16.
Rafah |
5.1% |
4.4% |
5.5% |
9.2% |
3.4% |
|
Total |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
100% |
3) Distribution of the sample among the
governorates.
|
Governorates |
Total |
|
1. Jenin |
7.6% |
|
2.
Nablus |
10.0% |
|
3.
Ramallah |
8.4% |
|
4.
Bethlehem |
4.8% |
|
5.
Jerusalem |
3.8% |
|
6.
Hebron |
14.0% |
|
7.
Jericho |
1.3% |
|
8.
Tulkarem |
5.8% |
|
9. Tubas |
2.1% |
|
10.
Qalqilia |
2.6% |
|
11.
Salfit |
2.7% |
|
12. Gaza
City |
12.3% |
|
13.
North Gaza |
7.2% |
|
14. Deir
El – Balah |
5.3% |
|
15. Khan
Yonis |
7.4% |
|
16.
Rafah |
4.9% |
|
