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The important questions are:
(1) What would have happened if the
Assira action had succeeded?
(2) Why did Ehud Barak approve this
action and the one before, in which an old Palestinian was killed?
(3) Why was this unit not disbanded
long ago?
The answer to the first question is
frightening. When Mossad agents failed to kill the Hamas leader in the
bungled action in Amman, it was the failure which saved us from
catastrophe, the very catastrophe which befell us when the Security
Service succeeded in killing the Hamas fighter Yikhye Ayash, nicknamed
"the engineer".
That so-called "success" buried
Shim'on Peres, the then Prime Minister. In a series of revenge actions,
dozens of Israelis were killed, Benjamin Netanyahu was swept into power
and peace was postponed.
If Abu-Hunud, had been killed, the
same thing would have happened: A series of terrorist actions, dozens
killed, the return of the Likud to power, the end of Barak's career.
For a year and a half we have had
quiet. It is not the Cherries who have achieved this, but Yasser Arafat.
He has succeeded because the majority of Palestinians realize that
terrorist acts at this time will damage their cause. Palestinian public
opinion prevents Hamas actions. But if Abu-Hunud had been killed, he would
have become a folk hero and the Palestinians would have cried out for
revenge.
However, the action failed.
Abu-Hunud escaped and turned himself in to the Palestinian police.
Everybody is satisfied. So why did Barak not let the Palestinians arrest
him in the first place?
The answer to the other two
questions is even more disturbing. Barak talks about peace. According to
him, we could have peace tomorrow morning, if only Arafat was more
forthcoming. The invasion of a village under (civilian) Palestinian rule
by an Israeli army unit will most certainly not push Arafat in this
direction. On the contrary, there will be more public pressure on him not
to give in to Barak's demands.
There must be some method in this
madness. After all, Barak is a logical person.
There is indeed a logical
explanation for the continued existence of units like Duvdevan and the
extension of their activity, some (if not all) of which are training
exercises - a frightening explanation. These are preparations for the
forthcoming big military confrontation that is bound to occur if the peace
process finally breaks down. It is quite possible that the four victims of
the Duvdevan actions - the old Palestinian and the three soldiers - will
in future be considered the first victims of the next Israeli-Palestinian
war.
What will this war be like?
Let's look at a possible scenario:
The Palestinians will declare their
state on the West Bank and in the Gaza trip, with East Jerusalem as its
capital.
In retaliation, Israel will declare
the annexation of the settlements.
Crowds of unarmed Palestinians will
march on some of the isolated settlements.
The Israeli army will send in large
reinforcements, in addition to the tanks already stationed there.
Somebody (probably a settler) will
open fire.
All over the West Bank and the Gaza
Strip, fights will break out between the Israeli army and the 40 thousand
Palestinian soldiers, who will be joined by a 100 thousand armed Fatah
youth and all the other Palestinian organizations. Hundreds of
Palestinians and dozens of Israelis will be killed.
As some Israeli generals have
already speculated in public, attack helicopters will be sent into action.
At this stage, Barak will have to
decide whether to send the army into the Palestinian towns.
If he does, there will be
street-battles, in which the tanks will be met by Hamas suicide bombers
and Fatah fighters, who might succeed in destroying some of them. (In
1976, a Syrian tank column, which entered Sidon in order to destroy the
PLO forces there, was nearly annihilated.)
Casualties (mostly Palestinians)
will probably be numbered in thousands.
Perhaps Barak will not involve the
army in fighting of this kind. Instead, he might decide to blockade the
Palestinian towns and villages, hoping to beat them into submission
through starvation.
Palestinians will try to break out
by force. Again, there will be hundreds of casualties.
The Palestinians, fighting for
their national existence, will be willing to absorb many casualties. How
many casualties will the Israeli public be ready to sustain in such a war?
When the UN finally intervenes and declares a cease-fire, the Israeli
public will be glad to accept it.
What next?
Both sides will return to where
they are now, both will be wiser. Our side, too. We shall then make the
concessions necessary for peace, which Barak is not ready to make today.
Only, the dead will not be there to
see.
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